The
scientific study of monitoring volcanoes has been growing since 1845, when the
first volcano-monitoring observatory was set up.
In
a recent article by Sparks, et al., published in Science a team of researchers looks at how technological advances
have improved our ability to understand how volcanoes form and develop over
time, but highlight the fact that our ability to predict eruptions with a high
level of accuracy is still difficult.
Seismic
monitoring, global positioning systems, and satellite-based methods like the
interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) enable scientists at
observatories around the world to map the shape and depth of magma chambers,
calculate the severity of a volcanic tremor and identify the differences
between a dormant and active volcano.
 |
| Volcanic eruptions are still difficult to accurately predict |
These
technological developments in the past few decades have allowed scientists at
volcano observatories to predict eruptions and re-classify active volcanoes
that were originally thought to be dormant.
However,
early warning eruptions still face major challenges globally. False alarms have led to many
observatories being mistrusted by the public. Alternatively, tragedies have resulted due to observatories
either not warning of an eruption they did not think was going to happen or
being unsure whether an evacuation was necessary.
Furthermore,
most observatories suffer from underfunding. This has resulted in most of the world’s active volcanoes
going unmonitored. There are 441
known active volcanoes in the developing world, however 384 of these have
either insufficient monitoring or no monitoring at all. Sixty-five of these active volcanoes
are located around large dense urban areas.
Improving
monitoring techniques and encouraging governments to invest in volcanic
observation centers must be a priority throughout the 21st
century.
Sparks, R.S.J., et al.
2012. Monitoring
volcanoes. Science 16, 1310-1311.
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